婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�鑰冪敓濡傛灉鎯充簡瑙�2024骞磋粺鑰冮珮绱氳€冭│鐨勫牨(b脿o)鍚嶆檪(sh铆)闁�銆佺钩璨�(f猫i)鏅�(sh铆)闁撱€佽€冭│鏅�(sh铆)闁撶瓑鏅�(sh铆)闁撶瘈(ji茅)榛�(di菐n)锛屽彲浣跨敤“  鍏嶈不(f猫i)闋�(y霉)绱勭煭淇℃彁閱�”鏈嶅嫏(w霉)锛岄爯(y霉)绱勬垚鍔燂紝灞嗘檪(sh铆)閲嶈鑰冭│绡€(ji茅)榛�(di菐n)鎴戝€戞渻浠ョ煭淇″舰寮忓強鏅�(sh铆)鎻愰啋鎮�锛�

淇℃伅绯荤当(t菕ng)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)锛氫笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻

鍦ㄤ俊鎭郴绲�(t菕ng)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗斧妗堜緥鍒嗘瀽瑷�(j矛)绠楅涓€鑸笉鑰冧笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻锛岃┎鑰冮粸(di菐n)澶氬嚭鐝�(xi脿n)鍦ㄧ稖鍚堢煡璀樼鐩�锛岄潪甯搁噸瑕�锛屽ぇ瀹惰鎺屾彙瑭茬煡璀橀粸(di菐n)锛屽鍋氱浉闂�(gu膩n)缈�(x铆)椤岀反缈�(x铆)銆傝┎鐭ヨ瓨榛�(di菐n)鍦ㄣ€婁俊鎭郴绲�(t菕ng)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗斧鏁欑▼銆�(绗�4鐗�)321-322闋�銆�

涓夐粸(di菐n)浼扮畻锛�瑷�(j矛)鍔冭⿻瀵╂妧琛�(sh霉)(Program Evaluation and Review Technique锛孭ERT)锛屽張鎴愮偤涓夐粸(di菐n)浼扮畻銆傜暥(d膩ng)姝峰彶鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)涓嶅厖鍒嗘檪(sh铆)锛岄€氶亷鑰冩叜浼扮畻涓殑涓嶇⒑瀹氭€у拰棰�(f膿ng)闅�(xi菐n)锛屽彲浠ユ彁楂樻椿鍕曟寔绾�(x霉)鏅�(sh铆)闁撲及绠楃殑婧�(zh菙n)纰烘€�銆備娇鐢ㄤ笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻鏈夊埄鍔╀簬鐣屽畾娲诲嫊鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅�(sh铆)闁撶殑杩戜技鍗€(q奴)闁�銆備娇鐢ㄤ笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻鍊间締鐣屽畾娲诲嫊鎴愭湰鐨勮繎浼煎崁(q奴)闁擄紝鍙互鎻愰珮鍠粸(di菐n)鎴愭湰浼扮畻鐨勬簴(zh菙n)纰烘€�銆�(婧Θ鎻愮ず锛氭蹇典簡瑙ｅ嵆鍙紝閲嶈鐨勬槸瑷�(j矛)绠楁柟娉�銆佸叕寮忥紝绲�(ji茅)鍚堣│椤屽绶寸繏(x铆)锛屽鍕曟墜鍘荤畻)銆�

PERT灏嶅€�(g猫)娲诲嫊鐨勫畬鎴愭檪(sh铆)闁撴寜鐓�3绋笉鍚屾儏娉佷及瑷�(j矛)锛�鏈€妯傝(O)銆佹渶鎮茶(P)銆佹渶鍙兘(M)銆�

涓€銆佹湡鏈涘€间及绠�

鍩轰簬鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅�(sh铆)闁撳湪涓夌ó浼扮畻鍊煎崁(q奴)闁撳収(n猫i)鐨勫亣瀹氬垎甯冩儏娉侊紝鍙▓(j矛)绠楁湡鏈涙寔绾�(x霉)鏅�(sh铆)闁揟E銆�

璨濆鍒嗗竷锛�

TE=(TP+4TM+TO)/6

CE=(CP+4CM+CO)/6

涓夎鍒嗗竷锛�(婧Θ鎻愮ず锛氳矟濉斿垎甯冩瘮涓夎鍒嗗竷绠楃殑鏇寸簿纰猴紝濡傛灉椤岀洰娌掓湁鏄庣⒑瑾槑鐢ㄤ笁瑙掑垎甯�锛屽墖榛樿獚(r猫n)鐢ㄨ矟濉斿垎甯冦€�)

TE=(TP+TM+TO)/3

CE=(CP+CM+CO)/3

鑰冨療鏂规硶1锛�鏈€绨″柈鐨勮€冨療鏂瑰紡灏辨槸鐩存帴濂楀叕寮忚▓(j矛)绠桾E鎴朇E锛屾瘮濡傦細

闋�(xi脿ng)鐩稉(j墨ng)鐞嗙涓€娆℃壙鎺ョЩ鍕曠APP鐨勮粺浠堕枊鐧�(f膩)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩紝鍦ㄥ仛鎴愭湰浼扮畻鏅�(sh铆)锛岃€冩叜浜嗘渶涓嶅埄鐨勬儏娉�锛屼及绠楀嚭鎴愭湰鐐�90浜�/鏃�锛屾渶鏈夊埄鐨勬儏娉佷笅鎴愭湰鐐�45浜�/鏃�锛屽叕鍙哥殑鏈熸湜鎴愭湰鐐�60浜�/鏃�?锛涱媱璋剝顟炬瀚夊顟(di菐n)浼扮畻娉�锛岃┎闋�(xi脿ng)鐩殑浼扮畻鎴愭湰鐐�()浜�/鏃�銆�

A.55

B.50.5

C.65

D.62.5

銆愮瓟妗堛€慏

銆愯В鏋愩€戦€欑ó灏辨槸涓夐粸(di菐n)浼扮畻闈炲父绨″柈鐨勮€冨療鏂规硶锛岀洿鎺ュ鍏紡:(90+4×60+45)/6=62.5銆�

鑰冨療鏂规硶2锛�瑷�(j矛)绠桾P銆乀M銆乀O锛屼篃闈炲父绨″柈锛屾瘮濡傦細

鏌愰爡(xi脿ng)鐩及绠�锛屾渶妯傝鎴愭湰105钀紝鍒╃敤涓夐粸(di菐n)浼扮畻娉�锛屾寜涓夎鍒嗗竷瑷�(j矛)绠楀嚭鐨勫€肩偤94钀厓锛屾寜β鍒嗗竷锛岃▓(j矛)绠楀嚭鐨勫€肩偤94.5钀厓锛屽墖鏈€鎮茶鎴愭湰鐐�()钀厓銆�

A.80

B.81

C.82

D.83

銆愮瓟妗堛€慍

銆愯В鏋愩€戣娉ㄦ剰椤岀洰鎻愬埌浜�“涓夎鍒嗗竷”鍜�“璨濆鍒嗗竷”銆傞€欓噷鍙互瑷�(sh猫)鏈€鎮茶鎴愭湰鐐篨锛屾渶鍙兘鎴愭湰鐐篩锛屽緱鍑轰笅鍒楁柟绋嬬祫锛�

涓夎鍒嗗竷锛�(X+Y+105)/3=94

璨濆鍒嗗竷锛�(X+4Y+105)/6=94.5

寰楀嚭X=82 ;Y=95

浜�銆佹(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�/鏂瑰樊銆佸畬宸ユ鐜囪▓(j矛)绠�

鐒¤珫涓夎鍒嗗竷锛岄倓鏄矟濉斿垎甯�锛岃▓(j矛)绠楀嚭渚嗙殑瀹屾垚鏌愭椿鍕曠殑鏈熸湜宸ユ湡(骞冲潎宸ユ湡)锛岄兘鍙湁50%鍙兘鎬�(姒傜巼)鍦ㄨ┎宸ユ湡鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐銆傜偤閫�(j矛n)涓€姝ヨ▓(j矛)绠椾笉鍚屾檪(sh铆)闁撳収(n猫i)锛屾垨涓嶅悓鏅�(sh铆)闁撹畩鍕曞崁(q奴)闁撳収(n猫i)鐨勫畬宸ユ鐜�锛屽紩鍏ユ澶垎甯冨湒閫�(j矛n)琛屽憟鐝�(xi脿n)銆�

妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�=δ= (tP- tO)/6

鏂瑰樊=δ²

娉細澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊鏅�(sh铆)锛屾(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸笉鑳界洿鎺ョ浉鍔�锛岃閫氶亷鏂瑰樊鐩稿姞锛屾鏅�(sh铆)妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸偤鍚勬椿鍕曠殑鏂瑰樊涔嬪拰鍐嶉枊骞虫柟銆�

姝ｅお鍒嗗竷鍦�(鍠竴娲诲嫊)锛�

鍦栧舰鐨勪腑闁撶窔姊濇渶楂樺皪鎳�(y墨ng)鏁�(sh霉)鍊间唬琛ㄦ湡鏈涘€�(骞冲潎鍊�)锛岀敤±δ绻埗鍏朵粬鍧愭(bi膩o)鏁�(sh霉)鍊硷紝δ浠ｈ〃妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�銆�

灏嶄簬姝ｆ厠(t脿i)鍒嗗竷锛�

娲诲嫊宸ユ湡鍦�±1δ鑼冨湇鍏�(n猫i)鐨勬鐜囨槸68.26%;

娲诲嫊宸ユ湡鍦�±2δ鑼冨湇鍏�(n猫i)鐨勬鐜囨槸95.46%

娲诲嫊宸ユ湡鍦�±3δ鑼冨湇鍏�(n猫i)鐨勬鐜囨槸99.73%

娲诲嫊宸ユ湡鍦�±6δ鑼冨湇鍏�(n猫i)鐨勬鐜囨槸99.99%

鐢辨鎴戝€戝彲浠ョ煡閬擄細

闋�(xi脿ng)鐩湪鏈熸湜宸ユ湡瀹屾垚鐨勬鐜囨槸50%銆�

鍦�(鏈熸湜鍊�+1δ)鏅�(sh铆)闁撳収(n猫i)瀹屾垚鐨勬鐜囨槸50%+(68.26%/2)=84.13%;

鍦�(鏈熸湜鍊�-1δ)鏅�(sh铆)闁撳収(n猫i)瀹屾垚鐨勬鐜囨槸50%-(68.26%/2)=15.87%;

閫欐ǎ鐪嬫枃瀛�锛屽ぇ瀹跺彲鑳藉緢闆ｇ悊瑙ｏ紝閫欓噷鍒楀咕閬撶湡椤岀湅鐪嬶細

瀹屾垚鏌愪俊鎭郴绲�(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩腑鐨勪竴鍊�(g猫)鏈€鍩烘湰鐨勫伐浣滃柈鍏� A 鎵€闇€鐨勬檪(sh铆)闁�锛屾▊瑙€鐨勪及瑷�(j矛)闇€ 8 澶�锛屾偛瑙€鐨勪及瑷�(j矛)闇€38澶�锛屾渶鍙兘鐨勪及瑷�(j矛)闇€ 20 澶�锛屾寜鐓ERT鏂规硶閫�(j矛n)琛屼及绠�锛岄爡(xi脿ng)鐩殑宸ユ湡鎳�(y墨ng)瑭茬偤(1)锛�26澶╀互鍚庡畬鎴愮殑姒傜巼澶ц嚧鐐�(2)銆�

(1)

A.20

B.21

C.22

D.23

(2)

A.8.9%

B.15.9%

C.22.2%

D.28.6%

銆愮瓟妗堛€態銆丅

銆愯В鏋愩€�

闋�(xi脿ng)鐩殑宸ユ湡=(8+20×4+38)/6=21澶�

妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�=(38-8)16=5澶�

鍓囧湪26澶╁収(n猫i)锛屽嵆+1δ鍏�(n猫i)鐨勬鐜囨槸50%+68.26%/2=84.13%锛屾墍浠�26澶╀互鍚庣偤1-84.13%=15.87%銆�

濡傛灉閭勬槸涓嶇悊瑙�锛岄偅涔堝氨璜嬪ぇ瀹跺鍋氶鐔熸倝锛屽鍋氬咕閬撻灏辫兘鐞嗚В浜�!

姝ｅお鍒嗗竷鍦�(澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊)锛�

鐭ラ亾鍠€�(g猫)娲诲嫊宸ユ湡鑸囨鐜囧悗锛屾垜鍊戝氨鍙互鏍规摎(j霉)绲﹀嚭澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊鐨凾P銆乀M銆乀O锛屾眰澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊鍦ㄧ郸瀹氭檪(sh铆)闁撳収(n猫i)瀹屽伐姒傜巼銆傛瘮濡傝▓(j矛)绠楀悓涓€姊濋棞(gu膩n)閸佃矾寰戜笂鍏ㄩ儴娲诲嫊(涓嶅惈鎻愬墠鑸囨化鍚庨噺)鐨勫伐鏈熻垏姒傜巼銆傞€欐檪(sh铆)闇€瑕佽▓(j矛)绠楀嚭“澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊鐨勫钩鍧囧伐鏈熻垏澶氭椿鍕曠殑妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�”锛屽叾涓娲诲嫊鐨勫钩鍧囧伐鏈熷氨鏄�“娲诲嫊骞冲潎宸ユ湡涔嬪拰”锛屾(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸槸“灏嶅娲诲嫊鏂瑰樊涔嬪拰绠楁牴铏�”銆�

骞冲潎宸ユ湡T=鍚勬椿鍕曞钩鍧囧伐鏈熶箣鍜�=TE1+TE2+TE3.....TEn

鏂瑰樊δ²=δ1²+δ2²+δ3²+.......δn²

妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�=

鑸変緥瑾槑锛�

鏌愰爡(xi脿ng)浠诲嫏(w霉)鐢卞瓙浠诲嫏(w霉)鈪�(瑷�(j矛)鍔冪法鍒跺拰鎵规簴(zh菙n))鍜屽瓙浠诲嫏(w霉)鈪�(瑷�(j矛)鍔冨(sh铆)鏂�)绲勬垚銆傞爡(xi脿ng)鐩稉(j墨ng)鐞嗚獚(r猫n)鐐哄瓙浠诲嫏(w霉)鈪犵殑妯傝姝锋檪(sh铆)鐐�3澶�锛屾渶鍙兘鐐�4澶╋紝鎮茶姝锋檪(sh铆)鐐�8澶�;瀛愪换鍕�(w霉)鈪＄殑妯傝姝锋檪(sh铆)鐐�5澶�锛屾渶鍙兘6鐐哄ぉ锛屾偛瑙€姝锋檪(sh铆)鐐�10澶�銆傛牴鎿�(j霉)浼扮畻锛岃┎浠诲嫏(w霉)浼扮畻姝锋檪(sh铆)鐐�( )澶�銆�

A.10

B.11

C.12

D.13

銆愮瓟妗堛€態

銆愯В鏋愩€�

瀛愪换鍕�(w霉)鈪犵殑浼扮畻鏅�(sh铆)闁�=(3+4×4+8)/6=4.5澶�

瀛愪换鍕�(w霉)鈪＄殑浼扮畻鏅�(sh铆)闁�=(5+4×6+10)/6=6.5澶�

鍓囪┎浠诲嫏(w霉)鐨勪及绠楁檪(sh铆)闁�=4.5+6.5=11澶�

鑰冨墠娌栧埡璩囨枡锛�姝峰勾鐪熼銆�楂橀牷鑰冮粸(di菐n)銆�鍒烽搴�鍙粸(di菐n)鎿�鍏嶈不(f猫i)涓嬭級锛�

浠ヤ笂灏辨槸“淇℃伅绯荤当(t菕ng)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)锛氫笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻”鐨勫収(n猫i)瀹逛簡锛岃珛鑰冪敓鎻愬墠閫�(j矛n)琛屽倷鑰�銆傛韩棣ㄦ彁绀猴細鐐哄公鍔╁悇浣嶈€冪敓鏇村ソ鍦板倷鑰�2024骞磋粺鑰冮珮绱氳€冭│锛岀挵(hu谩n)鐞冪恫(w菐ng)鏍＄偤澶у鐗规剰涓婂偝浜嗗緢澶氬倷鑰冭硣鏂�锛屽姝峰勾鐪熼銆佹ā鎿│椤岃垏绛旀瑙ｆ瀽銆佽€冭│鎶€宸х瓑鍌欒€冭硣鏂�锛岃€冪敓鍙粸(di菐n)鎿婁笅鏂�“鍏嶈不(f猫i)涓嬭級”閫�(j矛n)琛岄牁(l菒ng)鍙栧摝锛�